ELECTION UNPREDICTABLE IN JUNE 2015
Will Canada elect a New Democratic Party in
October? If the change actually happens, Stephen Harper, his PMO that keeps
crumbling before another renewal and bevy of closest associates will probably
be to blame. At least those associates remaining after John Baird, Peter
MacKay, Jim Prentice, Shelly Glover, Laurie Hawn and James Rajotte to mention
just a few of the thirty or more CPC governing members not seeking re-election will
also need to change non-negotiating tactics if re-elected without a majority.
With four months until the October election date set by the Harper government in one of its first acts the Tom Mulcair led NDP appear to be riding a wave pointing to possibly governing. Like all waves that roll to the top might crest prematurely with another result. Although unlikely the Justin Trudeau hordes that seem to come out for most of the Liberal party rallies almost everywhere in the country could actually vote. If the unpredictable eighteen to 34 year old vote happens election results might be as surprising as the recent Alberta or even Ontario voting outcomes.
With the volatility of recent elections everywhere in Canada predicting a majority or even minority government for any party is impossible. There is probably even an outside chance of a coalition government. Change will likely take place whatever the outcome. A few scenarios include a possibility Stephen Harper might reverse the current fixed election date situation and extend the present majority government term to the maximum five years allowed by law. The swell in support for the NDP could dissipate allowing either of the other two parties to form a minority government or Stephen Harper’s CPC could pull off what appears at this time to be a miracle and retain a majority for the next four years. The most unlikely outcome at this point would be for the Justin Trudeau Liberals to form a majority government.
There are some absolute certainties regarding the end result of the next election. None of the parities in a position to become the next government will promise or even mention the possibility of attempting to control wildly fluctuating gasoline prices. The excuses will be everything from the low Canadian dollar against American currency or the high cost of transporting crude by rail rather than shipping Canada’s world envied resource to US refineries for costly processing. Those are only a couple of invalid excuses among a myriad of other explanations to keep the high taxation value on vehicular gas rolling into government coffers.
The ever increasing tempting license to steal that is becoming evident for many elected or appointed to the public officials is highly unlikely to find a realistic solution. The price of running government will not be reduced only changed to appear stable until the latest financial figures are released showing increased spending and taxation each year. The list goes on and although frustrated between 30% and 40% of Canadians will still vote. The latest voting technology will not be available since using the internet to vote could be manipulated with results giving voters untrue numbers and political parties less chance of controlling the vote. The reality is the problem already exists with unresolved accusations of voter fraud circulating continuously between elections. Even some candidates and appointed ministers of the crown have been accused and even convicted of voter fraud. Those are only the people that got caught. The chance of mandatory voting or online ballot casting is about as unlikely to happen soon as the sun failing to rise every morning.
The most likely outcome of the next election as of June 2015 is for a minority government led by the party most wanting to assume or retain power followed by another expensive federal election within a maximum of three years.
With four months until the October election date set by the Harper government in one of its first acts the Tom Mulcair led NDP appear to be riding a wave pointing to possibly governing. Like all waves that roll to the top might crest prematurely with another result. Although unlikely the Justin Trudeau hordes that seem to come out for most of the Liberal party rallies almost everywhere in the country could actually vote. If the unpredictable eighteen to 34 year old vote happens election results might be as surprising as the recent Alberta or even Ontario voting outcomes.
With the volatility of recent elections everywhere in Canada predicting a majority or even minority government for any party is impossible. There is probably even an outside chance of a coalition government. Change will likely take place whatever the outcome. A few scenarios include a possibility Stephen Harper might reverse the current fixed election date situation and extend the present majority government term to the maximum five years allowed by law. The swell in support for the NDP could dissipate allowing either of the other two parties to form a minority government or Stephen Harper’s CPC could pull off what appears at this time to be a miracle and retain a majority for the next four years. The most unlikely outcome at this point would be for the Justin Trudeau Liberals to form a majority government.
There are some absolute certainties regarding the end result of the next election. None of the parities in a position to become the next government will promise or even mention the possibility of attempting to control wildly fluctuating gasoline prices. The excuses will be everything from the low Canadian dollar against American currency or the high cost of transporting crude by rail rather than shipping Canada’s world envied resource to US refineries for costly processing. Those are only a couple of invalid excuses among a myriad of other explanations to keep the high taxation value on vehicular gas rolling into government coffers.
The ever increasing tempting license to steal that is becoming evident for many elected or appointed to the public officials is highly unlikely to find a realistic solution. The price of running government will not be reduced only changed to appear stable until the latest financial figures are released showing increased spending and taxation each year. The list goes on and although frustrated between 30% and 40% of Canadians will still vote. The latest voting technology will not be available since using the internet to vote could be manipulated with results giving voters untrue numbers and political parties less chance of controlling the vote. The reality is the problem already exists with unresolved accusations of voter fraud circulating continuously between elections. Even some candidates and appointed ministers of the crown have been accused and even convicted of voter fraud. Those are only the people that got caught. The chance of mandatory voting or online ballot casting is about as unlikely to happen soon as the sun failing to rise every morning.
The most likely outcome of the next election as of June 2015 is for a minority government led by the party most wanting to assume or retain power followed by another expensive federal election within a maximum of three years.