RUSSIA UKRAINE INTRUSION AND CHANCES OF WAR
Russia’s position of power based on energy resources will probably be short lived in terms of years or decades with new technology changing the way everything happens. The ability to ship products quickly together with new technological such as fracking for oil and natural gas even in minute quantities is changing the energy dependency landscape. The United States has recently reduced its dependency on Mid East and even Canadian crude due to the new technology. The change suggests Russia will face the same situation in the near future reducing the dependency of other nations on the country’s huge natural resource supply.
For the time being Russia can flex its military muscle due to an ability to restructure its military as a result of income from the current resources sales. Those income generating industries are the economic life blood of the nation and now becoming less of an asset due to the aforementioned technology advances and the nearness of Mid East suppliers to Europe and Africa.
The Mid East is still the world’s greatest source of energy resources so with the rapidly reducing need of the United States to buy those products, the Arab and Persian nations with energy to outsource will be looking to export oil and gas in other directions. Realigning shipping routes and pipelines to carry the products to Europe and Africa is one solution. The emergence of China, India and the host of other quickly developing Asian economies are also potential customers.
Russia could also enter the race for supply dominance but appears to be prepared to manipulate the worldwide situation with military action and threats. The aim appears to be keeping the status quo with respect to resource supply to countries under its control if possible. Such activity is destined to fail and will undoubtedly hurt both the Russian economy and reputation as a world power.
The alternative which at present doesn’t seem to be an option is Russian military action against another European nation. The scenario is unlikely with China abstaining from supporting Russia during a recent United Nations vote regarding the Russian Ukraine activity. Hopefully the Russians will not attempt further expansion deemed illegal by the majority of other nations and begin negotiations to defuse the current situation.